نوع مقاله : علمی پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 عضو کمیته کشاورزی مرکز ملی راهبردی مطالعات کشاورزی و آب اتاق بازرگانی، صنایع، معادن و کشاورزی ایران و استاد سازمان تحقیقات آموزش
2 پژوهشگر پسادکتری اکولوژی گیاهان زراعی، گروه اگروتکنولوژی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران
3 معاون پژوهشی مرکز ملی راهبردی مطالعات کشاورزی و آب اتاق بازرگانی، صنایع، معادن و کشاورزی ایران و عضو هیات علمی سازمان تحقیقات آموزش
4 سرپرست مرکز ملی راهبردی مطالعات کشاورزی و آب اتاق بازرگانی، صنایع، معادن و کشاورزی ایران، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
With the aim of providing food security and taking into account the water capacity of Razavi Khorasan province, this study has predicted the future capacity of horticultural and greenhouse Products production in this province through documentary and library studies. The harvested area, yield, production, volume and water productivity of horticultural and greenhouse products in Razavi Khorasan province for 5 (2024-2028) and 10-year horizons (2024-2033) were predicted and compared to the baseline (2017-2020). If the goals of this study are fulfilled, the water requirement and the amount of water consumed by horticultural products will decrease in both full and deficit irrigation scenarios and both horizons compared to the baseline. But the water productivity of these products increased from 0.52 kg m-3 in the baseline to 0.57 and 0.79 kg m-3, respectively in 5- and 10- year horizons under full irrigation conditions and to 0.72 and 0.94 kg m-3 under deficit irrigation conditions. The yield of irrigated and rainfed horticultural products will increase and the harvested area of irrigated horticultural products will decrease and that of rainfed horticultural products will increase in the horizon periods compared to the baseline. However, the amount of rainfed and irrigated horticultural production in deficit irrigation conditions will increase and the amount of water production in full irrigation conditions will face a decrease in the direction of water balancing. The amount of water requirement by greenhouse crops will decrease, but the harvest level, yield, production, volume of water consumption and water productivity will increase in the horizon periods compared to the baseline. The demand for fruit in the province and its production rate will increase in the 5- and 10-year horizons compared to the baseline. Therefore, the trade balance of the province will be more negative and its self-reliance percentage will decrease.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
)